This Week in Statehouse Motion: What Invoice Is This? version

Final Session: The yr began off fairly mundanely, contemplating it was an election yr that ends in zero (making it the ultimate election previous a spherical of redistricting).

Campaign Action

  • The largest shift was in Virginia, which, due to its off-off-year state elections, was the one legislature newly flipped. Democrats had management of the state Home, Senate, and governorship for the primary time in over 1 / 4 century, and the social gathering used its trifecta management to do all kinds of cool things, like
    • Passing a slew of latest gun security legal guidelines,
    • Decriminalizing marijuana, 
    • Elevating the minimal wage,
    • Establishing protections for the LGBTQ group,
    • Increasing entry to reproductive well being care and abortion,
    • Ratifying the Equal Rights Modification,

… and extra.

After which …

Grandma Acquired Run Over By A Virus: COVID-19 modified everybody’s lives in March, together with state lawmakers’.

  • Many states’ legislative classes don’t wrap up until Spring or Summer (or later), so legislators nationwide scrambled to finalize budgets and cross key payments as quarantines and stay-at-home orders took impact.
  • However because the pandemic progressed, so did election season—and issues had been trying fairly fairly good for Democrats flighting to flip state legislative majorities to win affect over the upcoming spherical of redistricting in key states.

Whoops.

Silver Bells: Democrats took the silver, so to talk, in key legislative races in Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas on Election Day … besides, as I’m awfully fond of claiming, there’s no second place in politics.

  • Whereas it’s legitimately nice that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris gained, downballot Democrats took a little bit of a beating—they usually took that beating within the worst attainable yr.
    • The story of 2020 isn’t what Republicans flipped—in any case, that turned out to be a grand whole of two chambers (Alaska notwithstanding/tbd): the New Hampshire Home and Senate.

Republicans’ huge win in 2020 was what they managed to not lose.

Let’s discuss what Democrats are facing in the 2021 round of redistricting.

… and yeah, it sucks.

Issues positively obtained worse for Democrats redistricting-wise on account of this yr’s elections.

  • Which implies profitable a majority within the U.S. Home goes to be even more durable for Democrats over the course of the following decade—to say nothing of profitable energy in state legislatures.
    • Nov. 3 noticed the GOP’s redistricting edge increase from three- or four-to-one to doubtlessly four- or five-to-one.
      • Sure, Republicans could find yourself drawing 5 occasions as many districts as Democrats.
    • This places Democrats on footing virtually as lopsided because the aftermath of the 2010 elections, when Republicans won the power to redraw five (and change) times as many House districts as Democrats.

The 2020 election outcomes created a grave danger of one other decade of minority rule by the GOP each in Congress and in statehouses nationwide.

However there’s one thing else at play within the upcoming spherical of redistricting that wasn’t a think about 2011.

  • Again then, many new maps in southern states had been topic to the preclearance requirement of the Voting Rights Act.
    • … a requirement the U.S. Supreme Courtroom killed in Shelby County v. Holder again in 2013.

My proficient Every day Kos Elections colleagues have assembled a super detailed breakdown of how the election outcomes affect the following spherical of redistricting, however right here’s the lowdown:

  • Why we nonetheless care about Arizona outcomes though they’ve an Impartial Redistricting Fee:
    • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain
      • Arizona has had an independent redistricting commission in place since 2000, however with the U.S. Supreme Courtroom’s newly conservative configuration, the IRC is at a giant of danger of being struck down.
        • Republicans within the legislature have repeatedly sought to undermine the fee, so ending the GOP’s management of state authorities would have helped insulate and protect it.

Welp.

  • Why we care about Michigan though they’ve an unbiased redistricting fee:
    • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican (up in 2022)
      • In 2018, Michigan voters authorized a poll measure establishing a redistricting fee, stripping the legislature of its energy to attract district maps for itself and for the U.S. Home.
  • Minnesota:
    • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
    • Home: Democratic maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain
      • Democrats fell simply brief of their bid to win trifecta management in Minnesota.
      • The state presently has nonpartisan maps drawn by a court docket and is poised to once more after 2020.
        • However racial segregation within the Minneapolis space creates a “geography penalty” that harms Democrats, which suggests even ostensibly nonpartisan maps have the effect of functioning like GOP gerrymanders.
          • Living proof: Hillary Clinton and Democratic candidates gained extra votes statewide than Trump and Republicans in 2016 however didn’t win a majority of seats within the state Senate.
          • That seems to have happened to Senate Democrats again this yr and will point out sick electoral fortunes for Dems within the state in coming cycles.
  • New Hampshire:
    • Governor: Republican maintain
    • Home: Republican flip
    • Senate: Republican flip
  • North Carolina:
    • Governor: Democratic maintain (however tremendous irrelevant on this context)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain
    • Bonus! Supreme Courtroom: Democratic maintain
      • Battles over redistricting are set to proceed after Republicans not solely maintained their majorities, but in addition unexpectedly gained seats. And though Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper gained reelection, it completely doesn’t matter: he’s unable to veto most key redistricting bills.
      • Republicans ousted three Democratic incumbents on the state Supreme Courtroom, narrowing Democrats’ majority to 4-3.
        • This issues as a result of state courts curtailed the GOP’s gerrymanders final yr and could also be known as on to take action once more within the coming decade.
  • Pennsylvania:
    • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain
  • Texas:
    • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain
      • I discussed in this space shortly before the election that Republicans had been pumping tons of late money into these state Home races, and WOW did that effort repay.
      • Texas is arguably crucial state for Republican congressional gerrymandering, and Democrats didn’t make the massive beneficial properties wanted to flip the state Home to interrupt the GOP’s trifecta management of the state.
        • However wait, it will get worse!
          • Democrats additionally failed to put the groundwork for hanging down gerrymanders later this decade after Republicans swept all 4 seats up this yr to take care of their 9-0 state Supreme Courtroom majority.

Sigh.

However I’m not finished!

  • It is time to discuss Iowa.
    • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
    • Home: Republican maintain
    • Senate: Republican maintain (half of seats up each two years)
      • Since 1980, a nonpartisan company has proposed state and congressional maps to the Iowa legislature, which has at all times adopted them.
      • Nonetheless, since Democrats failed to interrupt the GOP’s full management over state authorities, subsequent yr would be the first time ever underneath this method that one social gathering has trifecta management throughout redistricting.
      • The one attainable deterrent at play subsequent yr is concern of public backlash.
        • … however as an erudite reader of this missive, you realize that Republicans simply don’t care about backlash, particularly in relation to gerrymandering.
        • In spite of everything, how higher to guard your social gathering from anger over gerrymandering than to … gerrymander?

Flawless

tl;dr—

  • This spherical of redistricting may not be as dangerous for Democrats as [[shudder]] the 2011 spherical, but it surely’s not gonna be significantly better.
    • And relying on SCOTUS interference, it may arguably be worse.

Slay Experience: Another factor to control subsequent yr in all these legislatures Democrats didn’t flip—particularly in states with GOP governors:

A slew of payments discovering modern methods to make voting tougher.

Due to legislative pre-filing of payments permitted (inspired! Consider all these overwhelmed legislative companies staffers throughout session) earlier than many session begin in January, we all know that Republicans in lots of states are already drooling over the prospect of making extra limitations to the poll field.

In Texas, one GOP proposal seeks to ban sending mail-in poll purposes to any voter who doesn’t particularly request one. One other seeks to institute common and frequent voter-roll purges, and one other would broaden the definition of and enhance legal penalties for election fraud.

In Georgia, Republican lawmakers wish to implement onerous voter ID necessities for these searching for to solid absentee ballots (since these ballots tended to assist out Democrats this yr).

These are simply the tip of the iceberg. Preserve a watch out for tons extra of those measures popping up within the coming months (particularly in states like Arizona and New Hampshire).

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